Sportsbook

CLV: how much better the price is than the close

CLV (closing line value) is how the price of a bet compares with the closing line: by what percentage the player's odds are better or worse than the price at the start. A bet at 2.10 with the line closing at 1.95 gives a CLV of about 7.7%. Consistently positive CLV over hundreds of bets identifies a strong player more reliably than a month's winnings.

Yevhen SychovOctober 2026

Formula and example

CLV = bet odds / closing odds minus 1For example, the player took 2.10, and by the start the line closed at 1.95: 2.10 / 1.95 minus 1 = about 7.7%. A bet at 1.80 with a close of 1.95: a CLV of about minus 7.7%.

The closing odds are the most accurate pre-match price: by the start they reflect the news, the line-ups and professional money. In terms of implied probability, the first example looks like this: the player bought the chance at 47.6%, and by the start the market valued it at 51.3%.

How bookmakers use CLV

  • Player profile: the average CLV over hundreds of bets. Consistently above zero points to a potential sharp bettor, while around zero or below means an ordinary player.
  • Limits: CLV is used to set the player's personal stake factor, more in the article on bet limiting.
  • Line quality: if many players on a market have positive CLV, the price opens weak or moves late. That is a job for odds trading.
  • In-play: there is no closing line, so the bet price is compared with the price a short time after the bet.

Why CLV is more reliable than winnings

A month's result is largely luck. For example, 100 bets of €100 at odds of about 2.00: even for a player with no edge, the result often swings by €1,000 either way. CLV on the same bets shows the price they were buying at and hardly depends on how the matches ended.

Common mistakes

  • Judging on a dozen bets. The price also moves before the start for random reasons, so conclusions are drawn from hundreds of bets.
  • Comparing with your own lagging line. If your price moves later than the market, the benchmark is distorted. Use the close of the most accurate lines in the market.
  • Counting CLV together with promos. An odds boost above the market gives positive CLV to everyone who took it. Bets on boosts and promos are excluded from the profile.
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