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ENHow it works
The line on an event opens days or weeks before the start. Odds move with news, line-ups and player money. For example, the home side opened at 2.20, and after news of an injury to the away side's key player the price had fallen to 1.95 by the start: the implied probability rose from 45.5% to 51.3%.
The price at the start is called the closing line, and it is the most accurate one. Once the event starts, pre-match betting closes and the market moves in-play.
Pre-match and in-play
| Pre-match | In-play | |
|---|---|---|
| Margin | lower, especially on top events | higher: the price changes fast |
| Limits | higher | lower, especially on niche events |
| Bets | in advance, often accumulators | during the match, singles in a row and cash out |
| Risk to the line | news before the start | data speed |
How the margin is built into the price is covered in the article on bookmaker margin.
What matters to CRM
Pre-match and in-play players are different segments. A pre-match player picks events in advance and often builds an accumulator for the weekend: what suits them is a reminder the day before the round starts, a free bet on an accumulator and a boost on their team's match. An in-play player cares about a kick-off notification and cash out.
The segment is defined by the share of bets: for example, a player who places 80% of their bets before the start counts as pre-match. A sudden switch to frequent in-play bets after losses is checked as a risk signal, not treated as a reason for an offer.
Common mistakes
- One offer for every bettor. An in-play free bet given to someone who bets weekend accumulators will go unused.
- Moving the line too late. A price that has not reacted to team news gets taken by sharp bettors before the start.
- Accepting bets after the start. A bet at a pre-match price accepted after the event has begun is a gift to someone who can already see the game. Betting closes exactly at the scheduled start time.