Formula and example
Free bet winnings = free bet x (odds minus 1)A €10 free bet at odds of 2.5: if it wins, the player gets €15, and the €10 stake itself is not returned.
What it costs
The expected cost of a free bet is the winnings multiplied by the probability of the outcome. At odds of 2.5 and a market margin of about 5%, the probability of the outcome is about 38%, and a €10 free bet costs about €5.70 on average. The higher the odds, the closer the cost of a free bet gets to its face value.
Which terms to set
- Minimum odds for the qualifying bet that earns the free bet, and for the free bet itself.
- Expiry: matched to the upcoming events the player cares about.
- Markets and sports: ideally the player's favourite sport, league and team.
- Wagering on winnings, if there is any, and a max cashout for high odds.
Common mistakes
- A football free bet for someone who bets on tennis. An offer that misses the player's interest does not work at any amount.
- No minimum odds. The qualifying bet goes on an almost certain outcome just to get the bonus.
- Costing at face value. For the budget, use the expected cost, not the total of the free bets.