Revenue and metrics

Theoretical win: player value without luck

Theoretical win (theo) is the revenue a casino earns on average from a player's bets: turnover multiplied by the house edge. It strips out luck and shows the player's real value.

Yevhen SychovOctober 2026

Formula and example

Theoretical win = turnover x house edgeA player staked €50,000 on slots with a 3% house edge: the theoretical win is €1,500. On roulette with a 2.7% edge, the same €50,000 would give €1,350.

If the player played different games, theo is calculated for each game with its own house edge and then added up.

Theo and actual GGR

Actual GGR depends on luck: this month the player may have won and brought the casino a loss. Theo shows how much they bring on average with this kind of play. Over the long run, actual revenue gets close to the theoretical figure.

Where it is used

  • Rakeback and VIP rewards: a reward based on theo does not penalise a lucky player or overpay an unlucky one.
  • Player value: VIP selection and the VIP budget are more stable when based on theo than on a single lucky month.
  • Reinvestment: rewards as a share of theo show how much of its expected revenue the casino gives back.

Common mistakes

  • One house edge for all games. Blackjack and slots give very different theo on the same turnover.
  • Rewards based only on actual GGR. A lucky VIP is left without attention exactly when they are happy and ready to keep playing.
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